…Refinery to get 400,000 bpd
?angote Oil Refinery will raise Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)to $322bn by 2025, according to a new report.
The report, titled: ‘Impact of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Economy’, which was released recently by Data Services & Resources Ltd, indicated that without the refinery, Nigeria’s GDP was expected to grow by 3.34 percent in 2024, increasing to 4.13& by 2030.
It noted that with the refinery in operation, GDP growth was projected to rise to 4.15% in 2024 and reach 6.21% by 2030.
The report also stated that Nigeria’s GDP at current market prices would increase from N234.43trn in 2023 to N304.8trn in 2024, with further growth to N364.94trn in 2025. It added that by 2026, GDP was projected to hit N432.24trn, climbing to N806.91trn by 2030.
The Managing Director at Data Services & Resources Ltd, Afolabi Olowookere, stated that the refinery’s impact was expected to boost GDP to $370.49bn in 2026, $374.69bn in 2027, and continue rising to $412.91bn in 2028 and $446.98bn in 2029.
The report added that the ?angote Refinery, which began initial production in January 2024, was expected to positively and hugely impact the economy.
It stated that the refinery’s processing capacity would hit 650,000 barrels per day by the first quarter of 2025, producing 10.4 million tonnes of gasoline, 4.6Mt of diesel, and 4MT of aviation fuel annually.
The report also highlighted the contribution of the refinery to fiscal sustainability, stating that it would create thousands of direct and indirect jobs. It added that it would reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, and improve the country’s trade balance by increasing exports of refined products.
The report noted that by reducing fuel subsidies and generating substantial tax revenues, the Dangote Refinery was set to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position and provide much-needed resources for infrastructure and social development projects.
The refinery’s operation is also expected to stimulate growth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, boosting investments in oil refining, chemical and pharmaceutical products, plastic and rubber production, as well as cement manufacturing.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government commenced the sale of crude oil to Dangote Refinery and other local refineries in naira on October 1.
If Dangote’s ramp-up continues to advance in the coming months, Nigeria could start to realize its long-held goal of curbing costly oil product imports.
“If the refinery runs at higher rates, the West African market for gasoline and diesel imports will shrink extremely quickly”, FGE’s Hodgson said.
