One of Nigeria’s commodities market players, AFEX, has forecasted a surge in prices of six food commodities, namely maize, paddy rice, sorghum, soybean, cocoa and sesame by the end of December 2022 to the first half of 2023.
AFEX’s forecast is contained in its 2022 Wet Season Crop Production Report unveiled at a hybrid event hosted at the firm’s head office in Abuja yesterday.
The report said maize which faces a projected decline in production levels of up to 14% will reach a higher average price point ranging between N214, 980/metric ton ($486.72) and N220,000/metric ton ($498.09) by the end of the fourth quarter (Q4) 2022.
According to the report, this is compared to an average price of ($475.97) N210, 229/metric ton in Q4 2021, and projected that soybean price will rise by 6% by May 2023.
AFEX head of market data and research, David Ibidapo, who presented the report, said annual crop production research seeks to provide robust market intelligence for agriculture value chain players in Nigeria. “Nigeria’s most consumed grains are currently faced with declining food balance sheets as consumption levels rise faster than production levels, worsening food insecurity”, he stated.
Ibidapo said the report, which seeks to provide accurate and reliable data to aid the understanding of the national food system through farmer surveys and measurement of transaction level data, tracks six key commodities and their performance in the preceding season.
He also specified key indicators measured through the survey, stating that “factors such as land usage, inputs (quality of seeds and fertiliser usage), weather conditions, and the farmers’ output expectations were put into primary consideration.”
Ibidapo also said the projected price hikes across commodities in the report were also tied majorly to incidences of flooding resulting from incessant rainfall in key producing regions, which would further heighten the gap between production and output levels by farmers.
