By Hassan Faruk
Three years after assuming office amid one of Nigeria’s most severe economic and governance crises, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presented what amounts to a mid-term report card of his administration—one that seeks to justify painful economic reforms while projecting optimism about the country’s future.
In a nationwide address marking the third anniversary of his administration, Tinubu painted a picture of a nation that has weathered difficult but necessary reforms and is now on the path to recovery. Yet beyond the statistics and infrastructure announcements lies a broader question that continues to dominate public discourse: ‘Are ordinary Nigerians feeling the benefits of the reforms they have been asked to endure?’
The Reform Gamble
From the outset, Tinubu’s presidency became synonymous with economic reforms. His administration inherited an economy burdened by fuel subsidies, foreign exchange distortions, mounting debt obligations, declining investor confidence and widespread insecurity.
The most consequential decision came on May 29, 2023, when the President announced the removal of fuel subsidies. The policy, followed by the unification of the foreign exchange market, triggered immediate economic shocks. Fuel prices soared, transportation costs increased, inflation surged, and the cost of living reached levels many Nigerians had never experienced.
Three years later, Tinubu argues that those difficult decisions saved Nigeria from fiscal collapse. According to the President, Nigeria was spending as much as ₦18.4 billion daily on petrol subsidies, while multiple exchange-rate windows encouraged corruption, arbitrage and rent-seeking activities that drained trillions of naira from the economy.
His argument remains straightforward: maintaining the old system may have been politically popular, but it was economically unsustainable.
The anniversary statement therefore serves not merely as a celebration of achievements but as a defence of the administration’s reform agenda.
Signs of Recovery or Statistical Growth?
One of the strongest claims made by the President concerns the performance of key economic indicators.
He highlighted significant growth in the Nigerian stock market, noting that market capitalisation has risen dramatically since 2023. Investor confidence, he said, is gradually returning, while public finances have improved, giving states and local governments greater fiscal capacity.
Supporters of the administration point to increased government revenues, improved foreign exchange stability, renewed interest from investors, and the revival of major infrastructure projects as evidence that the reforms are beginning to yield results. However, critics argue that macroeconomic improvements have yet to translate into meaningful relief for many citizens.
While stock market gains and investment figures may indicate economic recovery, millions of Nigerians remain concerned about high food prices, unemployment, declining purchasing power and persistent poverty.
The challenge for the administration, therefore, is converting economic stability into visible improvements in household welfare.
Infrastructure as the Centrepiece
Perhaps the most visible aspect of Tinubu’s three-year scorecard is infrastructure development.
The administration has prioritised large-scale road projects, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road and the East-West Road.
The President says more than 2,700 kilometres of roads are currently under construction, reconstruction or rehabilitation across the country.
Rail modernisation projects are also progressing, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on connectivity as a catalyst for economic growth.
For many observers, infrastructure remains one of the easiest sectors through which governments demonstrate tangible progress. Roads, bridges and rail networks create jobs, stimulate commerce and provide visible evidence of government activity.
Yet, concerns remain regarding project funding, execution timelines and long-term sustainability amid competing fiscal pressures.
Oil, Gas and Energy: A Sector Reawakening?
The administration has also placed considerable emphasis on reforms within the oil and gas sector. According to Tinubu, policy changes have attracted fresh investment from international oil companies and strengthened confidence in Nigeria’s energy industry. The nearing completion of the NLNG Train-7 project and the expansion of domestic refining capacity are presented as milestones that could reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products while preserving foreign exchange reserves. The Government’s focus on compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative transport fuel similarly reflects efforts to cushion the impact of subsidy removal.
In the power sector, the administration acknowledges long-standing challenges but insists that investments in transmission infrastructure, renewable energy and grid expansion are laying the groundwork for future industrial growth. For many businesses, however, reliable electricity remains one of the most critical tests of whether reform is genuinely improving economic productivity.
Social Investments and Human Capital
Aware that economic reforms can only be sustained if citizens perceive benefits, the administration has increasingly highlighted social intervention programmes. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), which the President says has assisted over 1.5 million students, represents one of the government’s flagship human capital initiatives.
Housing programmes under the Renewed Hope agenda have also been promoted as vehicles for job-creation and affordable home ownership. Similarly, investments in healthcare, agriculture and consumer credit schemes are designed to broaden access to opportunities and reduce economic hardship.
These initiatives reflect a strategic attempt to balance fiscal reforms with social protection measures.
The success of such programmes, analysts note, will depend largely on transparency, accessibility and measurable outcomes rather than headline figures alone.
The Security Question
No assessment of Tinubu’s first three years can ignore security.
While the President insists that military operations have intensified against terrorists, bandits, kidnappers and oil thieves, insecurity remains one of the most pressing concerns for many Nigerians.
Recent attacks in parts of the North-West, North-Central and other regions continue to fuel public anxiety. The administration’s argument is that progress is being made, even if challenges persist.
Government officials point to improved intelligence coordination, enhanced military capabilities and reclaimed territories as evidence that security efforts are producing results. Yet, public perception often depends less on official statistics and more on whether citizens can travel, farm, conduct business and live without fear.
In this regard, security may remain the most important factor shaping public judgement of the administration’s overall performance.
A Message of Hope Amid Hardship
Beyond policy and statistics, Tinubu’s anniversary address sought to project optimism.
The President repeatedly acknowledged the sacrifices made by Nigerians and argued that those sacrifices are beginning to produce results. He appealed for patience, unity and national purpose, urging citizens to view the current period as a necessary phase in Nigeria’s long-term transformation.
His message was clear: the country has moved from crisis management to recovery, and the next phase should focus on ensuring that the gains of reform are reflected more directly in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
The Road Ahead
As Tinubu enters the final year before the midpoint of his first term gives way to preparations for the next electoral cycle, the administration faces a critical challenge.
The debate is no longer whether reforms were necessary; many economists agree that aspects of the previous economic framework were unsustainable. The bigger question is whether the promised benefits can reach ordinary Nigerians quickly enough to sustain public confidence.
The President’s third-anniversary address therefore represents both a declaration of progress and an acknowledgement of unfinished work. For supporters, it is evidence that Nigeria is gradually emerging from years of economic distortion and fiscal instability. For critics, it remains a promise that must still be measured against everyday realities in markets, homes and workplaces across the country.
What is certain is that the success or failure of Tinubu’s reform agenda will ultimately be judged not by government reports or economic indicators alone, but by whether Nigerians experience a tangible improvement in their quality of life in the years ahead.
