Political actor and All Democratic Alliance (ADA) promoter, Umar Arɗo, has warned that emerging opposition realignments involving the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) could ultimately benefit the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Speaking during an interview on a current affairs programme in Ogun State, Arɗo argued that fragmentation among opposition parties historically strengthens incumbents by splitting votes across multiple platforms.
His comments come amid recent political shifts, including the reported defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a move widely seen as part of broader realignment ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Arɗo said Nigeria may be returning to a three-bloc electoral structure similar to that of 2023, where opposition votes were divided among major parties, allowing the ruling party to maintain an advantage. “In 2023 it was PDP, Labour and APC. In 2027 it may be APC, ADC and NDC”, he said, warning that such dispersion could again shape electoral outcomes.
He maintained that the key question in political developments should be who benefits, arguing that regardless of intent, fragmentation tends to consolidate power at the centre.
The ADA promoter further warned that if opposition parties fail to maintain unity, Nigeria’s electoral landscape may continue to favour the ruling establishment.
