A recent survey commissioned by Enough is Enough Nigeria (EiE Nigeria) and conducted by SBM Intelligence, has said the country’s upcoming 2023 presidential election is set to be highly competitive, with no clear front-runner.
This marks the first time since the 1960s that Nigeria has seen three competitive political blocs largely divided along old regional lines.
The report added that the All Progressives Congress, (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states – Kano and Lagos.
The survey polled 11,534 Nigerians across the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory, (FCT), among which 62% were male, 38% were female, with those ages 24-32, the largest age distribution at 34%, while 26% are employed and 21% were students.
According to the poll, while many respondents were clear on who they believed would win the presidential contest in their state, they were not straightforward about their candidate preferences.
Additionally, many registered voters indicated that ethnicity and religion would play important roles in their decision-making process.
The survey data also suggest that despite recent technological and legislative changes to curb it, voter-buying is expected to occur during the election.
Furthermore, the survey revealed declining confidence in INEC’s ability to deliver a free, fair, and credible election. The relationship between the electorate and INEC appears to be influenced by the possible impact of insecurity on Election Day.
The data suggest that former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar and former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, could garner enough votes across four of the country’s six geo-political zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 States.
However, this outcome is complicated by the fact that the All Progressive Congress candidate, Bola Tinubu is likely to perform well in Kano and Lagos, as well as the heavily populated South-West zone and North-West States. This could result in BAT winning the popular vote, but not reaching the 25% threshold in 24 states.
The survey results are consistent with SBM Intelligence’s earlier projections that a second round will be needed to decide Nigeria’s next president.
