The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that a 20 per cent rise in international food prices caused by the war in the Middle-East could push more than 20 million people in sub-Saharan Africa into food insecurity and leave two million children under the age of five acutely malnourished.
The warning came as the IMF said the conflict is threatening to derail the economic gains recorded across the region after sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with its strongest growth momentum in a decade.
According to the IMF, the region recorded a growth rate of 4.5 percent in 2025, driven by lower macroeconomic imbalances, rising investment, and reforms carried out by several governments. The IMF noted that inflation in the region declined to about 3.5%, while public debt levels also began to fall following reforms such as exchange-rate adjustments, improved spending allocation, and tighter monetary policies.
However, the Fund said the war in the Middle-East has introduced fresh economic pressures through rising prices of oil, gas and fertiliser, disruption of trade routes; and tighter financial conditions. It said: “The human costs are equally stark. Food insecurity looms large: the region remains acutely vulnerable to food-price shocks, and the war has already driven up fertilizer and shipping costs”.
The IMF warned that the impact could become more severe if the conflict persists, noting that a prolonged war could further raise commodity prices, worsen financial market conditions, and force sharp fiscal adjustments in countries with large refinancing obligations.
It projected that growth in sub-Saharan Africa would slow to 4.3% this year, about 0.3 percentage points below pre-war forecasts, while inflation is expected to rise across the region. The Fund said although the slowdown may appear mild compared to global standards, it poses a serious concern for Africa because of the need for rapid economic expansion to create jobs for its fast-growing population.
Beyond food insecurity, it warned that declining foreign aid is removing a major support system for vulnerable countries. The Fund added that debt risks are worsening across the region, with more than one-third of countries either already in debt distress, or at high risk of falling into it.
To reduce the impact of the crisis, the IMF urged policymakers to focus on controlling inflation, protecting vulnerable groups from rising prices, and avoiding policies that could worsen fiscal pressures. It advised oil-exporting countries to treat gains from higher oil prices as temporary, and use the proceeds to rebuild financial buffers and strengthen social safety nets.
The IMF also called on the international community to provide predictable financing, technical support, and capacity-building assistance to help African countries manage the economic shock and sustain reforms.
