…Rebased GDP, Q1 growth estimate signs of nation’s economic resilience’ – Edun
The Federal Government has revealed that it collected a total of ₦14.27 trillion in tax revenues between January and June this year, in a massive 43 percent increase from ₦9.98 trillion realised in the first half of 2024.
The revenue collection performance also substantially exceeded the baseline growth target of 16.4 percent.
According to a report by the presidency yesterday, non-oil tax collection grew by 44.2 percent to ₦10.64 trillion in June, compared to ₦7.37 trillion in the same period of 2024.
The revelation came as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, welcomed Nigeria’s 2024 rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and the 3.13% first quarter (Q1) 2025 growth estimate, describing both as important signals of the country’s economic resilience and renewed momentum.
In nominal terms, the Nigerian economy grew from ₦205.09 trillion in the base year of 2019 to ₦372.82 trillion, according to NBS, which released the rebased GDP and Q1 economic growth figures on Monday.
The GDP rebasing – Nigeria’s first since 2014 – was undertaken by NBS in line with international best practices, and represented a critical step towards more accurate, up-to-date and comprehensive measurement of the economy.
Using the prevailing ₦1,529.53 per dollar exchange rate, the data showed that the economy was worth $243,526,768,148.72 in dollar terms, indicating that Nigeria trails behind South Africa, with an economy worth $410,338 billion, Egypt with $347,342 billion, and Algeria with $268,885 billion.
However, analysts reacted to the rebased GDP estimates, which put the economy at fourth position in Africa, saying attaining the federal government’s target of $1 trillion economy by 2030 is now a tall order.
Similarly, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) urged the federal government to look beyond the optimistic figures and address the reality that a large portion of Nigerians were trapped in harsh economic conditions that had further imposed poverty.
The significant revenue performance in the first six months of the year was attributed to the effectiveness of revenue diversification initiatives, strengthened tax compliance measures, and enhanced enforcement strategies implemented by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).
The 2025 revenue target represented a 16.4% increase relative to the total revenue collected in 2024. Oil tax revenue totalled ₦3.63 trillion, representing a significant growth of 39.4%, when compared to ₦2.60 trillion realised in the corresponding period of 2024.
The report pointed out that achieving the annual target necessitated sustaining a baseline growth rate of 16.4%, when compared to the corresponding revenue collections from the previous year. The benchmark served as an essential reference point for performance evaluation.
An evaluation of revenue collection performance as of June 30, 2025 indicated an upward trajectory relative to the corresponding period in 2024. The report said, “This favourable increase highlights the accelerated pace of revenue collection against 2024 and highlights continued momentum toward achieving the 2025 revenue target”.
Recall that President Bola Tinubu signed new tax laws last month aimed at lifting the ratio of tax to GDP to 18% by 2030, from about 13% currently.
In a statement issued by Director, Information and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Finance, Moh’d Manga, Edun commended the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS) “for its professionalism and technical rigour in delivering the rebasing exercise and quarterly GDP reports”.
Edun stated that with the rebasing, the updated national accounts now better reflected structural changes in the economy, including the rise of the digital and creative sectors, increased activity in services, and stronger diversification across non-oil industries.
The Minister stated that “the rebased GDP provides a clearer lens through which to view Nigeria’s economic performance. It allows policymakers, investors, and citizens to better understand the true size and composition of the economy, so we can plan more effectively and deliver greater prosperity to all Nigerians”.
The statement added that the rebased data revealed important shifts in the structure of the Nigerian economy.
Edun stressed that the evolving structure reinforced the government’s strategy of investing in productivity, infrastructure, digital innovation, and human capital to drive future growth and job creation.
Analysts reacted to the country’s rebased GDP estimates, which showed that its performance lagged behind South Africa, with GDP of $410.34 billion, Egypt $347.34 billion, and Algeria $268.89 billion.
Analysts, who spoke to newsmen, said given the unimpressive performance of the economy, achieving the current administration’s aspiration of a $1 trillion economy by 2030 had become a daunting challenge.
Economist and Chief Executive, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the rebasing exercise was not as dramatic as many had expected. He said the outcome showed that the country’s journey to the projected $1 trillion economy remained a tough call and a long way ahead, though the country would be inching closer to the aspiration. Yusuf, however, projected the Nigerian economy to reach $400 billion by the end of 2025.
According to him, Nigerians now had a clearer view of the size and structure of the economy as well as the sectorial contributions to GDP.
Also, Economist/Group Managing Director/Chief Executive, Bristol Investments Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, said the new GDP estimates showed the country still had a long way to go in achieving its target, adding that there was need to industrialise the economy and boost agricultural productivity.
Similarly, the former Director General, Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), said, “We have waited for the debasing of the GDP, and here it has come. Having a $243 billion economy after debasing tells us the magnitude of work yet to be done. The countries that are ahead of us have everything to justify their positions”.
Equally reacting to the rebased GDP, President of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Gabriel Idahosa, while addressing the media on the state of the economy, said, “Behind the optimistic figures lies our reality. Economic conditions have put a large portion of the population into poverty, inflationary pressures have continued to weaken our purchasing power, and rising cost of living has continued to rise”.
However, he pointed out that rebasing from the 2010 to 2019 base year had brought the country closer to global statistical standards, revealing a more diversified economy, where real estate, trade, telecoms, and crop production now dominate, while oil’s share continues to decline.
Idahosa called the Federal Government to action, saying, “The government must move from statistical celebration to strategic economic transformation”. He said inflation had remained unrelenting and alarming, especially in the food segment of a country, as most household expenditure is food-related.
The Chamber reminded the federal government of the clear advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the government should “recalibrate the budget, tighten monetary policy, protect the poor, and push deeper structural and institutional reforms to ensure that these macro gains translate into inclusive and resilient development”.
It urged the government to sustain the ongoing reforms and support identified growth-enhancing sectors like the power, energy, infrastructure, and services sectors in order to achieve the growth projections.
