Nigeria has lost an estimated $25.7 billion (roughly ₦39.3 trillion) worth of crude oil to theft in 23 years, deepening poverty, slashing government revenue, and pushing public debt to ₦149.4 trillion.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, (NUPRC), shows about 353 million barrels were stolen between 2002 and 2025 – nearly 72% of the country’s 2025 budget at an average price of $73 per barrel.
Despite spending ₦267.98 billion on pipeline security in just 16 months, theft remains rampant due to an organised network of powerful elites, militants, and foreign collaborators.
Oil theft surged with militancy in the Niger Delta, dropped after an amnesty in 2009, then rose sharply again. Daily theft peaked at over 100,000 barrels in 2021, dropping slightly to about 11,100 barrels daily in 2025.
Frequent pipeline vandalism has forced many producers to abandon pipelines for costly barging. Green Energy International recently opened a 350,000 barrels-per-day terminal in Port Harcourt to aid smaller producers. Nembe Exploration & Production cut losses from 90% to 5% by switching to barges.
Nigeria’s output remains at 1.4 million barrels per day, well below the 2.06 million target, tightening income and forex reserves.
While investments are rising under the Petroleum Industry Act, experts say insecurity and theft still threaten growth. Dr. Diran Fawibe of International Energy Services blames past governments for ignoring early warnings and demands a judicial probe.
Economists like Prof. Adeola Adenikinju and Prof. Segun Ajibola urge better security and enforcement, warning that expensive alternatives like barging harm transparency and investor confidence.
Energy analyst Henry Adigun says without safe pipelines, oil firms will keep paying more to protect production – at Nigeria’s cost.
