Ahead of the 2027 general elections, the death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has ignited a fierce struggle for the political soul of Northern Nigeria, with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) scrambling to retain its loyal base.
Meanwhile, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Kano governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso have emerged as frontrunners in the race to inherit Buhari’s political mantle.
Buhari, who died in London on July 13 after a prolonged illness, was buried in Daura, Katsina State, with national leaders, traditional rulers, and thousands of ordinary Nigerians in attendance. Tributes poured in, lauding his discipline, simplicity, and perceived incorruptibility — qualities that earned him a near-mythical status, particularly among poor voters in the North.
But beyond the mourning lies a turbulent political realignment. Buhari’s exit has left a significant vacuum in Northern politics, with analysts warning that no single figure currently commands the former president’s cult-like following or can replicate the electoral strength he brought to the APC in 2015 and 2019.
According to a political analyst, while speaking to newsmen, “Buhari was not just a vote magnet, he was the unifying symbol of northern political identity. With him gone, the race is wide open”.
The APC, which benefited from Buhari’s passive support during the 2023 elections that brought President Bola Tinubu to power, now faces an uphill battle.
Tinubu’s perceived weak grip on the North, coupled with growing dissatisfaction over his economic policies and lopsided federal appointments, has deepened internal discontent, especially in states like Katsina, Kano, and Zamfara — where Buhari’s personal appeal once kept the party intact.
In response, APC leaders have begun consultations with northern stakeholders in a bid to prevent defections and consolidate the party’s base. However, the scramble for supremacy appears to be favoring opposition figures.
Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate in 2019 and 2023, has intensified his outreach to former Buhari loyalists who feel alienated by the current APC leadership. His recent defection to the African Democratic Congress, (ADC), has sparked debate, but his vast political network, deep funding base, and national reach still make him a formidable contender.
“Any honest comparison would show that Kwankwaso cannot match Atiku in terms of national reach”, according to the secretary of the PDP in Kano, Alwalu Ibrahim. “Atiku is an old horse. He has networks in every part of the North”, he stated.
However, not everyone agrees. Kwankwaso, backed by the Kwankwassiyya movement, continues to consolidate his grassroots support, especially in Kano. His populist appeal and open criticism of the Tinubu administration’s perceived southern favoritism have earned him praise among northern interest groups. At a recent Constitutional amendment forum, he decried the state of northern infrastructure, particularly the Abuja–Kano road, claiming the National Budget disproportionately favors the South.
“He is a fierce defender of northern interests. Kwankwaso’s message resonates with a significant segment of the northern masses”, said one political observer.
Yet, doubts persist about Kwankwaso’s broader electability. Critics argue that his influence is largely confined to Kano, and that he remains polarising among the political elite. His underwhelming performance in the 2023 elections outside Kano — where he won 58.4% but failed to gain traction elsewhere — has been cited as evidence of his regional limitations.
On the other hand, Atiku faces accusations of elitism and being out of touch with rural northerners who once rallied around Buhari’s humble image. “He is viewed as overly ambitious and disconnected from the grassroots”, noted Jafar Sani Bello, a 2025 PDP governorship aspirant in Kano.
Buhari’s former appeal, built on personal austerity, integrity, and military-era credibility, is proving difficult to replicate. As former Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) Secretary-General, Anthony Sani put it: “Our leaders in the North must now learn that honesty, integrity, simplicity; and a genuine vision for the people are what matter — as Buhari demonstrated”.
With the 2027 elections on the horizon, and no clear successor to Buhari’s northern political dominance, political observers say the region is headed toward its most unpredictable power struggle in nearly two decades.
