Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit, (EIU), in their recent country report on Nigeria, has predicted that the victory of President Bola Tinubu would not be overturned at the Supreme Court.
According to the EIU, “Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, won the February presidential election with only 36.6 percent of the vote. The result is being contested in court, but EIU does not expect it to be overturned”.
Founded in 1946, EIU forecasts economic trends, political forces and industry developments in every country in the world. They combine data, analysis and forecasting to guide informed decisions by businesses and policymakers. Their reports form important tools for investment decisions by many.
The report acknowledges that Tinubu has shrugged-off low popularity to begin a campaign of market reform on a scale and intensity that is virtually unparalleled in Nigerian history but expects as the president’s low level of political capital erodes, his reform agenda will lose momentum.
Tinubu upon his inauguration announced deep reforms including fixing Nigeria’s multiple exchange rate problem and removing wasteful fuel subsidies, policies that “could deliver a stronger economy in the medium to long term but that means short-term pain for consumers”, the report said.
According to the EIU, the capacity to shield households from rising prices is limited owing to a tiny fiscal footprint. “In a country already grappling with multiple security crisis that are fuelled by high unemployment (a third of the workforce in 2020, according to the most recent official data) and widespread poverty, the potential for mass unrest is a major risk to both the smooth implementation of reforms and the ability of the government to survive its first term”, the report said.
The analysts also acknowledged that Nigeria’s politics is fluid, with party allegiances often more about political convenience than ideology.
