The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)s postponement of the gubernatorial elections last night can lead to huge economic and financial losses to Africas biggest economy, according to a new analysis by an Africa-focused geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm, SBM Intelligence.
Recall that INEC budgeted N355 billion for the 2023 elections; and putting off any aspect of the election until a later time means a staggering loss arising from the suspension of economic activities and movement restrictions.
The firm, in a document on its website yesterday, said, In 2019, SBM Intelligence estimated the cost of the election postponement to be $2.23 billion because its primary and secondary effects cost Nigeria two percent of its $420 billion Gross Domestic Product.
According to SBM, given the effects of inflation and the variance in the value of the Nigerian naira in 2019 and 2023, it can safely be said that yesterdays announcement, coupled with a possible rerun of the presidential contest on the unlikely chance the Labour Party and the Peoples Democratic Party prove their claims of rigging in court, would come at a greater economic and social cost.
SBM further said INECs efforts at ensuring the elections were not helped by the crippling cash shortage and fuel scarcity that resulted in protests and riots in some parts of the country, with some state governments openly declaring their refusal to align with Abujas currency redesign policies.
Nigeria has gone through a lot recently, and a rescheduled election is the last thing an already volatile polity and distressed economy needs, but it has happened, analysts at SBM said.
It might be only a week, and the reasoning may be legitimate, but the costs of this postponement may be paid in a fraught and delicate democratic transition, it stated.
