For many Nigerians and their beleaguered out-going government, these are not happy times. At a time when oil-rich Middle Eastern countries are basking in an unprecedented oil windfall in excess of $1.3trn according to the International Monetary Fund, (IMF), Nigeria, Africas top oil producer, is bleeding at a frightening pace.
An IMF director for the Middle-East and North Africa, Jihad Azour, told The Financial Times yesterday that relative to expectations before the war in Ukraine, Middle-East oil and gas exporters, particularly the Gulf States, will see additional cumulative oil revenues of $1.3trn through 2026.
In contrast, Nigerias oil production, as well as revenues, has collapsed to just half at a time it should be rising, the countrys fiscal crisis is worsening, with retained revenues unable to meet debt service obligations.
The pursuit of a populist petrol subsidy, which leaves the Federal Government broke, plus soaring inflation, are pouring more misery on the poor.
Nigerians are unsurprisingly angry as a result of the uncertain future they face. Even the rich are afraid, because of suggestions in a recent report by the World Bank hinting that some among them should expect to drop into the expanding category of the poor with just one more economic crisis.
Nothing better captures the worsening state of Nigerias economy and its fading promise than these figures: the countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slumped, from $546 billion in 2014 to $432 billion as of 2020; while GDP per-capita, a measure of the living standard of the people, has collapsed from over $3,000 to only $2,097.
Nigeria looks unrecognisable from the country that was forecast in 2015 to be the first African country to hit a GDP of $1 trillion. Today, its African peers, like South Africa and Egypt, are coping better. And while Nigerias GDP has been shrinking since 2014, South Africa and Egypts GDPs have gained 9.6% and 31.8% respectively in the same period.
An increasing number of Nigerians are hoping to ‘punish’ the ruling party at the next election; however, the government claims it should not be blamed for the rot. President Buhari has always maintained that the governments before his own mismanaged the economy, and in a recent Bloomberg interview, he claimed that Nigeria was now better than he met it, while applauding the highly-criticised interventionist monetary policies of his administration.
