Nigeria’s already fragile electricity supply has taken another hit, as the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) disclosed that average power generation has plunged to about 4,300 megawatts (MWs), crippled by a severe shortage of gas to thermal power plants.
In a statement issued yesterday, NISO confirmed that inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations, which dominate Nigeria’s electricity mix is the primary reason for the sharp decline. According to the operator, the country’s current available generation hovers around 4,300MW, far below what is required to stabilize supply across homes and industries.
The crisis is deeply rooted in a widening gas deficit. Thermal plants collectively require approximately 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas per day to operate at optimal capacity. However, as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at just 692.00 MMSCF per day, less than 43k of the required volume. This shortfall has drastically constrained generation output, leaving distribution companies (DisCos) with reduced energy to allocate to consumers nationwide.
The development comes amid warnings earlier in the month from Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited that electricity generation could suffer temporary setbacks due to scheduled maintenance by Seplat on key gas facilities between February 12 and 15. The maintenance, though described as routine, appears to have compounded existing supply weaknesses in a system already stretched thin.
With generation falling sharply, NISO says load shedding has become inevitable. To preserve grid stability and prevent a total system collapse, available electricity is being dispatched strictly in line with allocation percentages approved under the Market Rules of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). When system output drops to current levels, controlled outages are deployed across distribution networks to balance supply and demand and avoid widespread grid disturbances.
For millions of Nigerians, however, the technical explanations offer little comfort. Persistent grid collapses and erratic power supply continue to disrupt businesses, inflate operating costs, and deepen household hardship. Many families and enterprises are once again forced to fall back on diesel generators and solar alternatives, expensive coping mechanisms in an economy already burdened by inflation and energy cost pressures.
NISO acknowledged the inconvenience to electricity consumers and market participants, assuring that it is working with relevant stakeholders to restore full energy allocation once gas supply improves and generation capacity rebounds. But until upstream gas constraints are resolved, Nigeria’s power sector remains trapped in a cycle of instability where insufficient gas translates directly into darkness.
