A major fiscal contradiction has emerged at the heart of Nigeria’s 2025 Budget, as Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, disclosed to the Senate that the Federal Government’s actual cash revenue for the year stands at about ₦10.7 trillion, far below the ₦40.8 trillion earlier projected – and publicly declared as achieved – by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Edun made the revelation during an interactive session with the Senate Committee on Finance, while defending the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) just days before the 2026 Budget is expected to be laid before lawmakers.
The disclosure directly contradicts President Tinubu’s earlier statement that Nigeria had met its 2025 revenue target months ahead of schedule, a claim that had been widely publicised and used to bolster confidence in the administration’s economic reforms.
According to the Finance Minister, the Government recorded a revenue shortfall of roughly ₦30 trillion in 2025, largely due to weak oil and gas earnings and underperformance in other revenue lines. To keep government operations afloat, the Federal Government reportedly raised about ₦14.1 trillion through borrowing, even as it struggled to fully fund the ₦54.9 trillion 2025 budget.
Edun said that while “critical obligations” were met through tight treasury management, the revenue collapse meant that only about 30 percent of the capital budget was funded, forcing the Budget Office to direct Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to roll over nearly 70% of capital projects into 2026.
The development explains what officials privately describe as a “budget lockdown” – a freeze on most new capital projects – and mounting complaints from contractors facing delayed payments and stalled execution.
The 10th Senate has already begun probing what lawmakers describe as the problem of “multiple budgets, multiple borrowings, and weak execution”, with several senators questioning how optimistic revenue assumptions repeatedly fail to align with cash realities.
Lawmakers also raised concerns about the pace and structure of borrowing in 2025, warning that rising domestic debt could crowd out private sector credit, increase debt-service costs, and complicate monetary policy at a time the Central Bank is battling inflation.
Beyond the immediate budget pressures, analysts say the conflicting statements between the President and his Finance Minister risk damaging Nigeria’s fiscal credibility, a key signal for investors, credit-rating agencies and multi-lateral lenders.
For many lawmakers and Nigerians alike, the central demand is now reconciliation – a clear, documented explanation of how the country moved from claims of revenue targets met to an officially admitted ₦30 trillion fiscal hole – and how the Government plans to avoid a repeat in 2026.
