By; Abdull-Azeez Ahmed Kadir & Abubakar Ahmed
Nigeria’s census history spans over a hundred years. The first census was conducted in 1866, followed by the Censuses of 1871, 1881, 1891 and 1901. But all these censuses were restricted to Lagos Colony and environs.
The 1871 census marked the beginning of decennial census taking in Nigeria in line with the British decennial tradition.
Following the amalgamation of the Lagos Colony and the Southern Protectorate in 1906, the 1911 census extended to some parts of the Southern Protectorate; but marred by incomplete enumeration due to non-recognition of the legitimacy of the Colonial Government by some parts of the South.
The 1914 amalgamation of the Southern and Northern protectorates by Lord Lugard provided ground for population census with wider coverage. Like the previous ones, the 1921 census was a population estimate based on tax records, as the aged, infants and tax evaders were excluded. In the then Northern region, during the same period mentioned, the census result was based on population estimates from existing records or vital statistics.
The tax riots in Calabar and Owerri provinces in the then Eastern region, prevented enumeration in the major towns of these areas in 1931, while the locust invasion resulted in the diversion of some census staff to anti – locust duties in some parts of the Northern provinces. The outbreak of the Second World War disrupted the conduct of decennial censuses, so no population census was conducted in 1941.
The 1952/1953 Population Census was regarded as the first modern, national and carefully planned one in Nigeria. Records showed that the principle of simultaneity was not complied with as the census enumeration was staggered. The census of Northern Nigeria was conducted between May and July, 1952 while that of West and Mid-West were conducted in December 1952 and January 1953 respectively. Census in the East was conducted from May to August, 1953. This enumeration strategy made the comparability of data between one region and another difficult. Furthermore, the disruption of the Second World War made people suspicious of the intention of the exercise and many people did not submit themselves for enumeration. This meant that the exercise was characterized by gross under enumeration.
But the 1962 population census covered the whole country and was undertaken simultaneously during the month of May. Although the census was given adequate publicity, the results were not acceptable to the regions on grounds of high politicization.
The refusal of the government to accept the population census of 1962 prompted the 1963 population census which critics claimed were arrived at by negotiation rather than enumeration. The result was contested at the Supreme Court which ruled that it lacked jurisdiction over the administrative functions of the Federal Government.
The 1973 Census conducted between November 25th and December 2nd was not published on the grounds of deliberate falsification of the census figures for political and /or ethnic advantages.
The 1991 Census was conducted under Decree 23 of 1989 which set up the National Population Commission NPC. It was conducted all over the country from November 27 to December 2. This was the most scientific and most acceptable until the 2006 Population and Housing Census. In March 2006, Nigeria, for the first time, conducted a Population and Housing Census. Several stages were involved in the project. For the first time, the use of GPS and Satellite Imagery to carve out Geo-referenced EAs was adopted. Also Machine readable forms (OMR/OCR/ICR) were used to record information from respondents.
But even this met the worst opposition and dispute by the then Governor of Lagos State; Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu. The population census result affirmed Kano State as the most populous in Nigeria, followed by Lagos State and Kaduna State. But Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu, now the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressive Congress APC did not just disagree with the figures, but went ahead and conducted a population census for Lagos State, asserting that the state was the most populous in Nigeria.
It is no longer news that all is set for the conduct of another National Population and Housing Census as approved by the Council of State chaired by President Muhammadu Buhari at its meeting of Friday, April 14, 2022. The Council directed that the exercise takes place immediately after the 2023 general elections with April 2023 set as the date for the commencement of the exercise by the National Population Commission, NPC.
As a country desirous of speedy progress, the need to have reliable and accurate census figures to guide our planning and developmental decisions cannot be overemphasized.
However, for the exercise to get the acceptability of the generality of the citizens, the government have a responsibility to ensure that certain existential problems that will jeopardize the exercise and put a certain part of the country on the disadvantage is avoided so that in the end, issues such as the credibility, reliability and acceptability of the exercise will not be challenged as the case of the 2006 where Tinubu went against the Federal Government for Lagos State, and others preceding it.
However, certain issues need to be raised in order to guide policy makers of the very difficult prospect the northern part of the country will find itself if the exercise goes on as planned based on the reality of happenings across the country, especially in the North and South East.
First, several factors from outside and within have today laid siege on Nigeria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty manifesting in different forms of insecurity with virtually no part of the country that can boast of being in one piece as far as security of lives and property is concerned. The insurgency and terrorism in the North East, the banditry and terrorism in the North West and some parts of the North Central, coupled with herders/farmers clashes has saw to the displacement of tens of thousands of Nigerians, with some communities becoming total shadows of themselves as no living souls inhabit such areas. The South East is not faring any better with the activities of separatists groups that have not only hindered free movement of the citizenry, but grounded the economy of the region with the sit at home order, maiming of innocent lives and arson daily.
The recent killing of INEC staff and burning of her offices that led to suspension of the Continues Voter Registration exercise in some parts is a pointer.
No doubt, should the NPC go ahead with the National Population and Housing Census, it will be to the detriment of the north as the reliability and credibility of the figures that will emanate from the north will be put to question. And this development, if it happens; will further derail Nigeria’s quest towards achieving the long crafted ideal of oneness and togetherness as envisaged by our founding fathers.
Thirdly, with Nigeria’s economy in bad shape, plunging millions into more poverty, with millions of innocent citizens unable to have three square meals daily, with continuous rise in the double digits of inflation rate, with unemployment and under employment averaging 55 percent, N178.09 Billion was appropriated by the government for the conduct of the National Population Census; as confirmed by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, at the public presentation and breakdown of the Appropriation Bill in Abuja on October 9, 2021, which if juxtaposed with the economic reality in the country will better be described as callous and insensitive to the plight of average Nigerians at this difficult and challenging times. It will be more rational for the government to channel these monies into endeavors that will change the lives of the citizens for the better. In fact, if the government is clueless as to how it can positively impact the lives of the average Nigerian at this time, it can use same amount to subsidize prices of staple food which in turn will provide some form of succor and relief, or channel same into subsidizing the manufacturing sector which is currently suffering from continues rise in the cost of energy in the country. After all, even with the 2006 Census figures, to what extent can we say policy makers have utilized the estimates for planning and decision making which is the hallmark of any census exercise?
Fourthly, Nigeria’s contemporary socio-political terrain is not in any way ideal for the conduct of census within the agreed and stipulated period as citizens from across the northern and southern divides view every action of government through the ethnic and religious prism. The Census should wait a little longer after the general election deducing from the fact that the political atmosphere even before the conduct of political parties’ primaries is very tense leaving citizens speculating as to which part of the country will produce Nigeria’s next President; a cleavage that has succeeded in dividing Nigerians more along religious and ethnic lines.
Recall that even national census conducted by colonial, civilian and military governments since 1952/53 when the country’s socio-political reality has not deteriorated was greeted with disdain. The socio-political situation in the country will be better imagined if politicians and authorities throw away caution into the wind and play politics without restraint, maturity and decorum as it was the case in previous general elections and sadly, the same signs are clearly manifesting as the countdown to the 2023 general election has long begun.
Finally, we believe that there has to be a new thinking in adjusting the timing about how the country intends to go about with the conduct of the census. Incidentally, President Muhammadu Buhari has indicated his readiness to bequeath to Nigerians a safer, secure and prosperous country, these efforts hopefully should not exclude the possibility of readjusting the time for the conduct of this noble exercise even if there are elements that will continue to mount pressure that it goes on as scheduled.
President Muahammadu Buhari should know that if under his watchful eyes this exercise is undertaken to the disadvantage of the north with today many ungoverned space under the control of non-state actors, and unaccountable number of her citizens in captivity in the hands of bandits, Buhari will betray the ultimate support given to him in his time of political need and it then means that the north and other security ravaged parts of Nigeria, has become a victim of a struggle to entrench one of its own into the exalted office of the President which many had to lose their lives for that to be actualized.
The complaints from the trial census so far, if nothing, is a pointer that there is no time for a credible national population census in Nigeria. The trial exercise is fraught with all sorts of clogs.
This, President Buhari can ill afford. At least if he cares about posterity and what history writers would say about him and his administration, long after he is gone; especially with the opponents of the last exercise now trying to wrestle power from him.
