A group of five United States of America (US) academics have authored a research work on: “Failed State 2023, Nigeria – A Case Study”, and revealed that Nigeria, as an independent country, can fail for number of reasons.
The academics, Col Christopher J. Kinnan, Daniel B. Gordon, Col Mark D. Delong, Douglas W. Jaquish and Col Reuben S. McAllum, who are both Staff of Center for strategy and technology (CSAT), Air University Maxwell Air Force Base , Alabama 36112, USA, came up with the occasional paper series established by the Center.
CSAT, is a forum for research on topics that reflects long-term strategy thinking about technology and its implications for US National security.
The authors described how a failed State may impact the United States of America and the global economy in 2030.
The authors revealed that nations-States can fall for a myriads of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the Government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth.
According to the US senior Air Force officers, Nigeria, with its vast oil wealth, large population and its strategy position in Africa and the global economy can fall; and that if it fails disproportionately it’ll affect the United States and the global economy.
They said Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and will have nearly 250 million people by the year 2030, adding that in its reflectively short modern history, Nigeria have survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars. It mired with an active armed insurgency, it is also suffering from a disastrous ecology condition in its Niger-Delta region, and is fighting one of the modern world war’s legacies of political and economy corruption.
“While religious and ethnic violence are commonplace, the federal government have managed to strike a tenuous balance among the desperate religious and ethnic factions”, the research paper read.
The researchers worried that with such demographics, Nigeria failure would be akin to be a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor- it would be shattered into a potentially hundred of pieces.
They envisaged that Nigeria’s failure would also be caused by poor investment on the nation’s critical infrastructure and under-investment in health-care, education, science and technology are all leading to ”brain drain”, in which Nigeria’s most talented and educational citizens are leaving the country; and this will mean a future of Nigeria even poorer.
The researchers however, said Nigeria becoming a failed State is not a foregone conclusion, saying: “Should the oil rich State of Nigeria a nation likely to provide to 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030 failed, then the effects on the United States and other world economy would be too great to ignore. The threat that failure poses to a quarter billion Nigerian in terms of livelihood, security,and general way of life could quickly spread and cause a humanitarian disaster of unimagined proportion.
The occasion paper was coined in 2011, which projected the fall of Nigeria in 2030; the researchers however, said they reviewed the scenario in an effort to remind, or in a way attract the attention of, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the glaring realities the paper holds.
“The reality on ground as it’s only six years away from 2030 based on the predictions of CSAT are convincing enough to call on the Federal Government to raise up to the issue and avert the looming danger of Nigeria becoming a failed State”, it stated.
