…Succession tensions mount in key States
A major political recalibration is unfolding across Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections, as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu continues high-level consultations with opposition figures, while succession battles intensify in at least 10 States where governors are completing their final terms.
In a significant move widely interpreted as a step towards political realignment, President Tinubu, on Saturday, held a closed-door meeting with key members of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa. The delegation was led by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and included former governors Samuel Ortom (Benue), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), and Ayodele Fayose (Ekiti), all known allies of Wike.
This meeting marked the latest sign of deepening ties between Tinubu and members of the defunct G-5 PDP governors, a faction that distanced itself from the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in the 2023 elections, and aligned with Tinubu’s candidacy. While the details of the discussion remain undisclosed, sources say talks centered on forging future political alliances and possible integration into Tinubu’s broader 2027 strategy.
Meanwhile, succession dynamics are heating up across the country as 10 governors—seven from the APC and three from the PDP—approach the end of their constitutional two-term limits. The affected states include Lagos, Ogun, Borno, Kwara, Yobe, Nasarawa, Gombe, Oyo, Bauchi, and Adamawa.
In Lagos, political permutations are in full swing, with President Tinubu expected to play a decisive role in choosing the APC candidate. Among those being speculated are Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, Senator Tokunbo Abiru, Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, and Tinubu’s son, Seyi. However, party insiders suggest Tinubu may back a surprise candidate, consistent with his history of political unpredictability.
Opposition parties are also mobilising. The PDP says it is vetting candidates, including Funso Doherty, while the Labour Party is expanding grassroots operations in preparation for a serious challenge to the APC.
In Ogun, top APC figures such as Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), House of Reps member Gboyega Isiaka, and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, are jostling to succeed Governor Dapo Abiodun. Former Minister Sarafadeen Ishola and Communications Minister Dr. Bosun Tijani are also being mentioned. On the PDP side, former candidate Oladipupo Adebutu is expected to recontest.
Nasarawa is witnessing a crowded field with over 20 aspirants from APC, PDP, SDP, and others. Notable names include David Ombugadu (PDP), Senator Aliyu Wadada (SDP), former Environment Minister Hassan Abdullahi, and former IGP Mohammed Adamu. While zoning remains unofficial, debates around regional rotation are intensifying.
Former Senate President Bukola Saraki is leading a vigorous reorganisation of the PDP in Kwara to reclaim the state. Amid increasing public discontent, Saraki has welcomed defectors and re-registered old members. Ladi Hassan and Prof. Ali Ahmad are among those eyeing the PDP ticket, while the APC remains largely silent, though Speaker Yakubu Danladi and Senator Sadiq Umar are reportedly interested.
In Borno, Governor Babagana Zulum remains the state’s political kingmaker. Though silent on succession, insiders say whoever he endorses is likely to emerge victorious. No opposition candidate has formally declared interest, but coalition talks are reportedly underway.
In Gombe, the APC is weighing contenders like Minister of Transport Sa’idu Alkali, ex-Minister Ali Pantami, and Finance Commissioner Gambo Magaji. From the opposition, Jibrin Barde (PDP’s 2023 candidate) and Ahmed Mailantarki (ex-NNPP, now PDP) are viewed as key challengers.
In Oyo, the ruling PDP is facing internal turmoil. Several aggrieved party chieftains are reportedly in advanced talks to defect, possibly to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), citing exclusion from appointments and lack of reward for loyalty. Sources say these leaders are planning to defect with their political structures, potentially weakening PDP’s hold ahead of 2027.
As political tides shift and old rivalries re-emerge, analysts say the 2027 elections could see a new wave of alliances, defections, and unpredictable outcomes. Tinubu’s quiet courtship of opposition figures, combined with festering intra-party tensions, is reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape in real time.
