As preparations for next months elections reach an advanced stage, a coalition of 10 Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) have said 22 Nigerian States are at high risk of election manipulation.
The group made this known in a 26-page report, titled: Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI), released on Friday.
The report is an evidence-based tool designed to curb election manipulation, facilitate strategic election planning and promote citizens oversight of the electoral process, the group said
The 10 CSOs are Yiaga Africa; Center for Journalism Innovation and Development; SBM Intelligence; Dataphye; International Press Centre; Institute for Media and Society; Partners for Electoral Reform; The Albino Foundation; The Kukah Centre, and Enough is Enough Nigeria.
The index focuses on six variables for tracking election manipulation. They include INEC capture, voter register manipulation, voter suppression, resistance to the election technology, history of election manipulation, and election litigation.
The researchers said these six indicators reflect a comprehensive understanding of the electoral process and the interplay of actors in the election value-chain.
The EMRI is a qualitative tool of analysis which relies heavily on observation, content analysis and expert interviews. Data collected through these methods are triangulated to reflect how they result in election manipulation.
Following the aggregation of data, the EMRI then highlights the states according to the risk of election manipulation, using a ranking system based on the prevalence of the election manipulation indicators divided into three categories: High-Risk, Medium-Risk, and Low-Risk States.
The 22 States with high-risk of election manipulation are Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto and Jigawa.
EMRI also lists 12 states with medium election manipulation risks. The states include Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, Benue, Kogi, Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa and Cross-River.
Three States are classified as low risk; they include Gombe, Ondo and the Federal Capital Territory, (FCT), the report said.
The report warned that attempts to distort election outcomes using manipulation strategies are on the rise.
