Nigeria has been classified as “vulnerable” to instability in 2024, according to the latest SBM ‘Intelligence Africa Country Instability Risk’ index.
According to the report, this marks a downgrade from its “stable” status in 2023, driven by economic challenges linked to Government policies.
Recall that Nigeria dropped 6 points this year, scoring 45, when compared with 39 in 2023. According to SBM Intelligence, a higher score in the risk index means a higher level of political risk to business. Other African nations sharing this risk status include Ethiopia, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Togo, reflecting broader economic and governance concerns across the continent.
The report highlights Nigeria’s deteriorating economic environment, worsened by factors such as rising food inflation, insecurity, and rising poverty level as the drivers of instability in the country.
SBM Intelligence, in the report, stated that: “Nigeria’s economy continues to worsen, with rising food inflation, persistent insecurity across all geo-political zones, and many people falling into extreme poverty. It is more polarised now than ever, after the 2023 election and the unpopular reforms of the new government, such as the removal of petrol subsidies, which has worsened living conditions and led to the closure of businesses”.
Of 48 countries, 31 reported improved performance, while the rest deteriorated. Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar were the biggest gainers. On a regional count, Central African countries had the most representation, in the top ten, with about 40% of the lot having countries such as Angola, Central African Republic, Chad and Gabon.
Following closely is West Africa, at 30% with Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Togo. The regions with the lowest representations are East Africa, with 20% represented by Burundi and Madagascar, and Southern Africa, at 10%; with Eswatini as its sole representative.
“The worst-performing entities are shared by Eastern and Southern Africa, at 40% each–represented by countries such as Seychelles, Kenya, Mauritius, and Comoros, on the East side, ss well as Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Zambia on the South”, the report stated.
